Who wins — and who loses — if Obama opens travel to Cuba?

One of my very favorite pictures is a black-and-white photo of my grandparents enjoying an evening out at a bar in Havana in 1930. Unfortunately, following in their footsteps has so far been impossible without resorting to illegal travel tactics. (Which while tempting, I have avoided)

But now, with President Obama lifting some travel restrictions for Cuban Americans, and Raoul Castro saying nice things about our new government, it looks like travel for ordinary Americans to Cuba will soon be possible. Along with an end to the trade embargo.

So what does this mean for the travel industry?

First, cruise lines will be in a great position. Havana is less than 250 miles from Miami, and with the tenders available on most ships, the city doesn’t even need a serious cruise ship port to welcome tourists. Some European ships already sail there.

In fact, some years ago on a Celebrity Cruise Line sailing, the ship had to cancel a Grand Cayman stop due to weather and there was much discussion of an alternative port. The favorite amongst the passengers, go to Havana and “promise” the U.S. Government that only Europeans and Canadians would be allowed ashore. Alas, we were overruled and the ship went back to Cozumel.

In addition, many resort companies like Sandals, Occidental and Sol Melia already have Cuban hotels and resorts, catering to Europeans and Canadians. Some are in or near Havana. Many are all-inclusives located in the resort town of Varadero, about 85 miles from the Cuban capital.

These resorts, while not up to the standards perhaps of some other Caribbean resorts, will be no doubt booked solid with Americans willing to forgo some comforts for the ability to be amongst the first to return to Cuba.

The U.S. travel industry as a whole, in fact, is likely to do well with Cuba open for business. Many Americans might be watching their travel dollars, especially when it’s a question of the “same old same old” beach trip. But given a chance for something previously impossible, well, it’s hard to imagine that many of us might not spring for a trip. Particularly since it will be so much less expensive than say, a trip to Antartica or Cambodia.

And no doubt duty-free shops will do well with the previously embargoed Cuban rum and cigars. Most travelers to Mexico and the Caribbean know that these items are easily available now but legally must be consumed before returning to the U.S. (Not that they don’t occasionally make their way to our shores.)

Now, who loses?

I would have to think, number one, the Bahamas. While Nassau is not everyone’s favorite destination, it has for some years enjoyed the distinction of being the closest foreign port for U.S cruise ships. And it’s hard to imagine the port won’t lose traffic to Havana.

The same rationale applies to other nearby sun destinations from the U.S. — the Dominican Republic, maybe Cancun? (Varadero, in fact, is sometimes referred to as the Cancun of Cuba.) The novelty factor is a big part of many peoples’ vacation plans, and one reason cruise lines keep coming up with new ships. Cuba would be both an easy, and exotic, destination alternative.

And then presumably, if Cuban products are available duty-free, sales of other products might be impacted. Travelers looking for a fun souvenir seem far more likely to be tempted by say, Cuban rum than say, the Blackbeard rum sold to tourists from Grand Cayman.

No doubt there will be other winners and losers. And we’re not there yet. In any case, as a travel agent, and as that granddaughter of that young couple smiling over drinks in a Havana bar, it’s an exciting time.

Tagged as: Add new tag, Bahamas, cruise ships, cruise ships to Cuba, Cuba, Cuba travel, Cuban cigars, Cuban embargo, President Obama