Several bloggers have suggested instituting an “airline deathwatch” with odds posted on which airline will go into bankruptcy next.
Just in the past two weeks we have seen Aloha, ATA and SkyBus stop operations and today Frontier Airlines has declared Chapter 11. Who is next.
Admittedly, the Frontier Airlines Chapter 11 filing came out of the blue it seemed, but others appear to be marching to the brink of bankruptcy if negative news stories are any indication.
According to Chris Elliott on his blog here are his current odds:
United Airlines. Business is down, fares are up. Is the end near? (Odds: 1,500 to 1)
American Airlines. The world’s largest air carrier has been paralyzed by inspection-related cancellations this week, including more than 500 flights today. Compensating passengers will cost it millions. Is it enough to push it into bankruptcy? (Odds: 1,000 to 1)
AirTran. Its top executive is overpaid, it recently added surcharges for a second checked bag, and its core customers — budget travelers — are becoming even more penny-pinching. Can high ratings save it? (Odds: 50 to 1)
Alitalia. Deal to rescue ailing Italian carrier fell apart last week. Is the end near?
(Odds: 6 to 1)Sun Country. This struggling airline replaced its CEO, furloughed 30 percent of its pilots and is facing an embezzlement scandal. (Odds: 2 to 1)
What do you think? Am I missing any other candidates? Spirit Airlines? Delta Air Lines? Northwest Airlines?
Let us know if you have any other suggestions. My observations FWIW: AirTran survives. Alitalia is eventually bought by Air France/KLM, Delta and NWA merge but with separate operational structures, United keeps losing money, American Airlines faces increased labor actions that may doom it to Chapter 11, and US Airways plods along as two airlines merged only in name with half of their unions onboard and the other half pretending that US Airways and AmericaWest really haven’t merged.
